I have been speaking about a Fed pivot for a while now. One of the biggest reasons for a Fed pivot is deteriorating liquidity conditions and how that will affect global liquidity within the US and abroad. There are certain things that I will be discussing in this post in terms of what I use to measure liquidity stress conditions, the first being failures to deliver from the primary dealers. After this, I will discuss eurodollar futures, cross-currency basis swaps, money market funds (MMF) funding, forward rate agreements minus overnight index swaps, forward rates against forward rates, credit default swaps, and LIBOR (and other rates) minus the overnight index swap. All the factors mentioned will give some insight into what I am seeing and their implications while providing insight into how we are seeing massive liquidity tightening.
I'm new to your newsletter which I found after hearing you on LEAD- LAG whereby I was impressed with the breadth of your data and hence curious to learn more. At first I was inclined to dismiss completely your views due to a great many editing errors but I believe it's apparent you're using speech to text to write with and it cannot tell the difference between excess and access.
I'm new to your newsletter which I found after hearing you on LEAD- LAG whereby I was impressed with the breadth of your data and hence curious to learn more. At first I was inclined to dismiss completely your views due to a great many editing errors but I believe it's apparent you're using speech to text to write with and it cannot tell the difference between excess and access.
William